Jerónimo Martins in the capital markets

After the year of 2022 marked by international tensions, a continued rise in inflation and a slowdown in consumer demand, 2023 saw a deepening of the registered trends.

This environment was compounded by geopolitical risks, made worse particularly after the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October. Although inflation fell over the course of the year, the conflict in the Middle East increased uncertainty about oil prices and forced central banks to remain cautious.

However, after a period of greater volatility and consistently having regard to core issues such as inflation expectations and rising interest rates, the market has been adjusting.

The better-than-expected performance of economies and the resilient results shown by some companies, particularly technology companies, were key in boosting global stocks.

The world stock market, represented by the MSCI World index, saw high volatility in price from the beginning of 2023. Having recovered from a slump in the first quarter, the index was up in the second and third quarters, falling significantly towards the end of the year, particularly following the events of 7 October. The index only recovered in December, closing the year on a high, much like the other indices, reversing the sharp declines seen in 2022, which was the worst year for investors since the 2008 financial crisis.

Global markets were driven in particular by positive developments in the United States (US) market, with published data strengthening the belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could start cutting interest rates as early as March 2024. Similarly, in December and for the first time in more than three years, the central bank’s most well-known indicator for measuring inflation in the US fell in terms of monthly changes.

In Europe, at the start of the year, high volatility continued to deter investors from risk assets, affecting shares. Even so, the positive performance posted by various economic sectors enabled recovery of the value lost in 2022. As the year progressed, economic data improved and, with slowing inflation, expectations that central banks would cut interests rates in 2024 remained high.

In July, the euro saw its strongest appreciation against the dollar, ending the year 2023 up by more than 3% after hitting record lows at the beginning of October.

In Poland there were general elections and referendums, held on 15 October. The ruling party (PiS) failed to secure the necessary votes to guarantee a parliamentary majority, allowing a coalition government to be formed by the opposition parties: Civic Coalition, Third Way and New Left. The Polish index, WIG20, appreciated following the elections, closing the year with a significant 30.7% rise, a positive trend seen in the world’s major indices.

Share description

Jerónimo Martins’ shares are listed on more than 130 international sustainability indices, recognising the Group’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) commitments, including, in particular, the Eurozone 120 and Europe 120, both from Euronext Vigeo-Eiris, and the FTSE4Good Developed and FTSE4Good Europe indices.

We have been the world’s top-rated food retailer by CDP (Disclosure Insight Action) for four years in a row, as a result of our top score (‘A’) in our fight against climate change (Climate Change programme) and for the leadership level (‘A-’) we achieved in 2023, both in managing water as a critical resource (Water Security programme) and in managing the commodities most associated with deforestation risk, such as palm oil, paper/wood, beef and soy.

Another important indicator is the Global Child Forum, in which we obtained an overall score of 8.9 (out of a maximum of 10), improving 1.3 points compared to 2022, and ranked 8^th among the 1,108 companies assessed.

More information about Jerónimo Martins’ listing in these and other relevant indices is available on our website under “Responsibility”.

Capital structure

For information on Jerónimo Martins’ share capital structure, please see the Corporate Governance chapter of this Annual Report.

PSI performance

On Euronext Lisbon, the PSI recorded very positive performance, ending the year up 11.7% compared to the previous year.

In March, as part of the annual review of the main index, Ibersol joined the PSI. The Portuguese index now has 16 constituents.

Amid political instability in Portugal following the resignation of the country’s prime minister, the index fell 2.54% on 7 November, with analysts citing the initial concern among equity investors as the main reason for the drop. This pressure was felt by all 16 listed companies.

In November, the European Commission revised Portugal’s growth forecast for the years 2023 and 2024 downwards, while Moody’s surprised by upgrading Portugal’s debt rating by two levels. The agency predicts that Portugal’s GDP will grow at a rate of 2% per year.

Despite the volatility amid fears associated with monetary policy, like its peers the index proved resilient throughout 2023. After a promising start to the year, the PSI even reached historical 2014 highs in November and December.

Despite not mirroring global trends in December, the PSI closed the year with accumulated gains. This performance, for three consecutive years, puts the Portuguese index among the world’s best-performing stock markets.

Jerónimo Martins share price performance

Having consistently maintained its upward trend during the first half of the year, the Jerónimo Martins share price reached an all-time high just a few days before the publication of the first six months results, closing at €26.86 on 24 July, up 33% on the start of the year.

Nevertheless, previous share gains diminished thereafter, closing at €23.04, a 14.2% increase year-to-date.

In 2023, Jerónimo Martins traded approximately 167 million shares on the Euronext Lisbon stock exchange. This volume corresponds to a daily average of around 655,000 shares (15.1% below the average volume of the previous year). The average share price was €22.27 (up 8.2% year-on-year).

These shares represented the equivalent of 11.8% (approximately 3.7 billion euros) of the total number of shares traded on the PSI in 2023.

Jerónimo Martins closed the year with the third largest representation in the PSI, with a relative weight of 12.5% in the index (versus 12.1% in 2022) and a market capitalisation of 14.5 billion euros (12.7 billion euros in 2022). The Company continues to be one of the three Portuguese companies listed on the Euronext100 index, slightly increasing its weight to 0.37% (compared to the 0.35% recorded in the previous year).

Analysts

As at 31 December 2023, 25 analysts were actively covering Jerónimo Martins shares.

The average target price attributed by the group of analysts following the share, at the end of the year, was €25.69, about 12% above the closing price (€23.04), and 16% above the 2022 average target price.

The evolution of recommendations and price targets issued by the various institutions is available on our website.