Jerónimo Martins in the capital markets

Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the United States of America (USA) and monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB) despite higher than expected inflation in the region dominated the capital markets’ agendas throughout 2024.

At the very beginning of the year, Red Sea tensions threatened to negatively impact the global oil markets, increasing inflation risk. Nevertheless, the MSCI index hit a two-year high, the Euro Stoxx 50 reached 20-year record highs, and the S&P 500 posted new records, with the fourth consecutive climb registered in January.

The European markets proved particularly robust in the first quarter of the year, facilitated perhaps by the preliminary reading of inflation in the euro area, which renewed optimism on the ECB’s interest rate cuts.

The year was also marked by the strengthening of the US dollar. In June, the Bloomberg index, which measures the dollar’s performance against the world’s main currencies, reached a new high, driven by the Fed’s interest rate differential compared to that of other central banks.

Despite positive results for most stock markets, October brought a negative trend, with increased levels of uncertainty just before the USA presidential election.

At the end of the year, volatility increased with the threat of tariffs on USA imports.

The global stock markets declined in the final days of 2024, reversing, albeit slightly, the significant gains recorded in most indices in a year marked by historic highs in various countries and an appetite for higher-risk assets.

The S&P 500 hit 57 all-time highs and appreciated 23.3% in 2024, with back-to-back gains above 20%, which has only happened four times in the last 100 years, most recently in 1997-98.

Although European stock markets also performed well in 2024, USA markets significantly outperformed European stocks, benefiting from strong economic growth, technological advancements and interest rate cuts.

Europe’s stock exchanges also hit all-time highs in 2024 on various indices, albeit with much lower gains. The Stoxx 600 climbed 6%, representing the widest gap to the S&P 500 this century. Several aspects may have contributed to this gap, including the lack of technology components, political instability, the slowdown in the Chinese economy, and geopolitical tensions.

Political turmoil, particularly in France, has upped the pressure on the EU which, as entering 2025, is also dealing with the collapse of the German government just weeks before Donald Trump returns to the White House.

Share description

Jerónimo Martins’ shares are listed on more than 140 international sustainability indices, recognising the Group’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) commitments and its performance, amongst which the Euronext Sustainable Europe 120 index and the Euronext Climate Europe index, both Euronext indices, and the FTSE4Good Developed and FTSE4Good Europe indices.

In 2024, and for the first time, the Group was included in the FTSE Diversity & Inclusion Index – Top 100, a benchmark index that identifies the top 100 publicly traded companies with the best performance in promoting inclusive workplaces. The Jerónimo Martins Group is the only Portuguese company to be included in this index. We also continue to be listed on the Global Child Forum’s benchmark at “Leadership” level, the highest score, and are the top ranking Portuguese company.

The annual assessment carried out by CDP awarded Jerónimo Martins the top score (A) in Climate Change and the leadership level (A-) both in Water Security and in managing the commodities most associated with deforestation risk (Forests): palm oil, paper and timber, cattle and soy. In addition to the actions developed throughout 2024, the distinction recognises transparent reporting.

More information about Jerónimo Martins’ listing in these and other relevant indices is available on our website under “Recognition”.

Capital structure

For information on the structure of Jerónimo Martins’ share capital, please see Section A – Shareholder Structure of this Annual Report.

PSI performance

In 2024, the PSI saw high volatility. The index fell sharply at the beginning of the year, entering on an upward trajectory from March on. This trend was interrupted by a sharp decrease in June, which was partially absorbed by the growth seen in July.

Overall, the PSI’s performance in 2024 was influenced by a combination of weak economic growth, specific challenges related to the energy sector, and political uncertainties, leading the index to close 2024 with a slightly decline, in a positive year for global indices.

The Euronext March review showed no change in the composition of the PSI. However, in November, following settlement of the general and mandatory public offer launched for Greenvolt, the company was delisted, with the Portuguese index comprising 15 listed companies.

The year-on-year variation in the PSI (-0.3%) led the index record one of the worst performances compared to the European benchmark, with the exception of the Polish benchmark index (WIG 20: -6.4%) and the French benchmark index (CAC 40: -2.2%).

Jerónimo Martins share price performance

While the first five months of the year had a mixed impact on Jerónimo Martins’ share performance, June and July had an especially negative effect, particularly after disclosure of the first half-year results (on 24 July after the market closed) confirming the company’s anticipated outlook and leading analysts and investors to revise their expectations, in particular with regard to operational context in Poland.

The JM share ended the year with a price of 18.45 euros, down 19.9% on the close of the previous year, showing a positive trend in the last few months of the year.

In 2024, Jerónimo Martins traded approximately 213 million shares on the Euronext Lisbon stock exchange. This volume corresponds to a daily average of around 832 thousand shares (27% above the average volume of the previous year). The average share price was 18.87 euros (down 15.3% year-on-year).

Jerónimo Martins shares represented the equivalent of 12.7% (that is, approximately 4 billion euros) of the total number of shares traded on the PSI in 2024.

In terms of market capitalisation, with 11.6 billion euros (14.5 billion euros in 2023), Jerónimo Martins ended the year with the second largest representation on the PSI, with a relative weight of 11.5% in the index (compared to 12.5% in 2023). The Company is one of the four Portuguese companies listed on the Euronext100 index, slightly decreasing its weight to 0.32% (from 0.37% in the previous year).

Analysts

As at 31 December 2024, a total of 27 analysts were actively covering Jerónimo Martins shares, compared to 25 at the end of 2023.

The average target price attributed by these analysts was 21.20 euros, around 15% above the closing price on 31 December 2024 (18.45 euros).

The evolution of recommendations and price targets issued by the various institutions is available on our website.