Modern Food Retail
There was a slowdown in the growth of the food retail sales at current prices in 2024, mainly due to a significant slowdown in food inflation. Food inflation was volatile throughout the year, falling to near stagnation until February, and recovering from May onwards, closing 2024 at 2.4%.
The minimum wage increased by 7.9%, to 820 euros in January 2024, mitigating the effect of inflation on household disposable income.
PORTUGAL – Food Retail Sales Index & Food Inflation
Current Prices
In 2025, the context is expected to be more favourable for households, in view of the recovery of purchasing power through salary reviews (minimum wage increase to 870 euros in January), a slowdown in inflation, and a reduction in interest rates. Favourable labour market developments are also expected.
Wholesale Market
Despite the growth in tourism and the number of overnight stays in 2024, which benefited the hotel industry, the Hotel/Restaurant/Catering (HoReCa) channel, in the restaurant segment, faced strong challenges, suffering with the decline in Portuguese household spending on restaurants, and pressured by the rise in major costs, especially wages and rents.
The evolution of traditional retail, meanwhile, was negatively impacted by the expansion and strong promotional activity of modern retail.
Sources: Banco de Portugal Economic Bulletins; Portuguese Ministry of Finance; Portuguese Statistics Office (INE); Bank of Poland Economic Bulletins; Central Statistical Office (GUS); Banco de la República (Colombian Central Bank); Colombia National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE); Fedesarrollo; PMR Market Research; Fitch BMI; BMP; ISBIZNES; PORTAL SPOZYWCZY; Hatimeria; AHRESP, Distribuição Hoje.
Note: All macroeconomic data presented in this subchapter are based on the latest available information at the closing date of this report.